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温家宝的华盛顿之行(Mr Wen goes to Washington)

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China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, is on a visit to America that includes a meeting with President George Bush. Mr Wen hopes to quell trade tensions. Mr Bush hopes to quell tensions over Taiwan

中国总理温家宝在美国进行访问并同布什总统进行会晤。温希望缓解经济压力,而布什则希望缓解对台湾的压力

ON MONDAY December 8th, Wen Jiabao, China’s prime minister, kicked off his three-day visit to America by ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. It was a symbolic[标志性的] moment—a leader of the Chinese Communist Party firing the starting gun[发令枪] for the capitalist running dogs of Wall Street. The running dogs clapped, and no wonder: China is good for profits. Its limitless supplies of cheap labour, its efficient production platforms and its absence of currency risk have made it an integral part[主要组成部分] of international capitalism. In recent years, multinational companies have perfected the art of assembling[组装] their goods in China, selling them back to the West, and distributing the dividends to applauding Wall Street investors.

十二月八日,中国总理温家宝以敲响纽约证券交易所的钟声开始了他为期三天的美国之行。这是个标志性的时刻——一个中国领导人为华尔街的资本主义走狗打响了发令枪。走狗们鼓掌了,因为无疑:中国能带来利益。它能供给无限的廉价劳动力;它有高效的生产平台;它没有货币风险,这一切使它成为国际资本主义的重要组成部分。近些年,跨国企业对于在中国组装他们的产品已是轻车熟路,再把他们的产品买到西方诸国,然后给这些鼓掌的华尔街投资者带来分红。

On Tuesday, Mr Wen moved on to Washington, where his reception was likely to be less enthusiastic. Tensions[压力] are rising over trade and Taiwan. Militants[好战派] in Congress decry China's unbalanced and, they say, unfair trade with America. Meanwhile, militants in mainland China denounce the Taiwanese government's provocative experiments in people power.

周二,温先生前往华盛顿,但在那里他受到的接待似乎不够热情。贸易和台湾问题的压力持续增长。国会的好战派谴责中国对美国贸易的不公。同时,中国大陆的好战派也在抨击台湾政府对民权的煽动性尝试。

Last month, Taiwan’s parliament passed a law that would allow the island to hold national referendums[公投]. Nothing wrong with that, you might say. But referendums have a nasty[令人厌恶] habit of providing definitive[确定性], yes or no answers to delicate[微妙的] questions that might be better left unposed. For Taiwan, the most delicate question of all is its ambiguous[暧昧的] status vis-a-vis[与] mainland China. The possibility that the people of Taiwan could vote for independence from the mainland enraged[激怒] the authorities[当局] in Beijing, who view the island as a wayward[不听教导的] province. They condemned[谴责] the referendum law as a tool for separatists[独立派]. One Chinese military official, quoted by the state media, was frighteningly blunt[直言的]: “Taiwan independence means war,” he said. “This is the word of 1.3 billion people, and we will keep our word.”

上月,台湾国会通过了一项允许在岛上进行全民公投的法律。您也许会说这并没错,但公投的决定性也是很令人厌恶的,对于一些微妙的问题,与其直接回答“是”或“否”还不如让它悬而不决。对台湾而言,最微妙问题就是它与中国大陆的不确定的关系。台湾能通过投票从大陆独立出来,而激怒北京当局,因为他们认为台湾只是个不听话的省。他们谴责公投只是独派的工具。据中国媒体报道,一位中国军方官员令人生畏地明言:“台湾独立就意味着战争,”他补充:“这是十三亿人民的声音,我们言出必行。”

Stung by such outrage[欺辱], the Taiwanese opposition succeeded in watering down the government’s proposal. The law, as passed, would only allow a referendum on Taiwan’s independence if China attacked the island. But Taiwan’s government may not settle for[满足] that. It has toyed with the idea of repealing[废黜] the law and starting again. Taiwan’s president, Chen Shui-bian, has said he intends to hold a referendum on March 20th, the same day he stands for re-election, urging China to renounce[放弃] the use of force against the island and to remove the estimated[推测的] 496 ballistic[弹道] missiles[导弹] it is currently pointing across the Taiwan Strait.

因为这样的刺激,台湾的反对派成功的阻挠了政府的提案。通过的发令只允许台湾在受到大陆进攻的情况下进行公投。但台湾的政府不会满足于此,它又开始玩弄废法重立的把戏。台湾总统陈水扁说,他计划在明年3月20日进行公投,这正是台湾选举总统的日子,以此来敦促中国大陆放弃对台湾的武力威胁,移除推测的496枚对准台湾海峡的弹道导弹。

The United States is the third corner of this awkward[尴尬的] triangle[三角]. On Monday, it warned mainland China not to contemplate[企图] coercion[威胁]. But it also told Taiwan that it does not want to see unilateral[单方面的] moves in the direction of independence. President George Bush confirmed that stance[姿态] on Tuesday, while seated beside Mr Wen. But Taiwan's Mr Chen remains undeterred[未被吓住的]. On Wednesday, as he launched his campaign[竞选活动] for re-election, he said the “Taiwan people have the right to say loudly that they oppose[反对] missiles[导弹] and are for democracy[民主].” Mr Bush would rather they spoke softly. As one aide confided[透露] to the New York Times, the president “isn't shopping around for another international crisis”.

美国是这个尴尬三角的第三角。周一,它警告中国大陆不要企图施加压力。但它又对台湾说,不愿意看到单方面的独立进程。周二,坐在温先生旁边的乔治.布什总统重申了这个态度,但台湾的陈先生不为所动。周三,在他开展连任竞选活动时说“台湾人民有权大声说我们反对导弹,我们期望民主。”可布什先生宁愿他们说话柔和一些。正如他的一个助手对《纽约时报》透露的:总统在另一次国际危机之间徘徊。

Talking trade

Mr Bush is, however, shopping around for some concession on trade and exchange rates. China is expected to amass a trade surplus of at least $120 billion with the United States this year. The manufacturing states are in uproar over the migration of jobs to China and their complaints are reverberating in Washington. Last month, America imposed import quotas on Chinese socks, dressing gowns and bras, claiming that they were disrupting America’s textiles market. Some fear that the quotas, while insignificant in themselves, might represent a shot across China’s bow—to be followed up with a full fusillade of protectionist measures if more is not done to narrow the trade gap.

China can hardly apologise for making its exports cheaply. But it is also accused of keeping its currency, the yuan, too cheap. Pegged at a rate of 8.28 to the dollar since 1994, the yuan has followed the greenback on its long march downwards since the beginning of last year. As America’s competitiveness has improved, China’s has kept step, and the trade gap between the two has only widened. John Snow, America’s treasury secretary, has urged the Chinese to move towards unpegging the yuan or repegging it at a less competitive rate. The Chinese authorities have agreed to study the possibility with the Americans, but no more.

However, China’s banks and their customers seem to be expecting something more. According to figures published on Monday by the Bank for International Settlements, $9.1 billion was repatriated to China from foreign bank accounts in the second quarter. Most analysts think these funds are coming home in anticipation of yuan appreciation. If so, Mr Snow may rue the day he lodged the thought in the minds of Chinese investors. China is the third-biggest customer for American government bonds. If it takes its money out of the market, the Treasury’s debt will fetch a lower price, and its cost of borrowing will rise—collateral damage from the Bush administration’s threatened trade war.

【原载经济学人/52EN.Com编译◎译文仅供参考】